The U.S. Economy: Speeding Up

(From the economist.com) First, the good news. According to preliminary estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, American economic growth continued to accelerate as expected in the fourth quarter of 2010. Real GDP expanded at a 3.2% annual pace, up from 2.6% in the third quarter and the fastest pace since the first three months of the year. This was the sixth consecutive monthly expansion, and it pushed the American economy above an important psychological threshold: real output is finally, at long last, above the pre-recession peak. It only took three years to regain that ground.

The 3.2% rate was a little less than the 3.5% economists had forecast, but this is the preliminary release; two further revisions will occur in the months to come. The biggest boost to growth came from accelerating growth in personal consumption, the lion’s share of which was from purchases of durable goods. Consumer spending was up at a 4.4% annual pace (compared to 2.4% in the third quarter). Of the 3.2% total growth pace, 3.02 percentage points were contributed by personal consumption.

Gains were also attributable to a nice improvement in exports. Net exports contributed positively to growth for the first time all year. But for the first time in almost two years, federal government spending joined state and local spending as a drag on growth. This trend will continue; generally speaking, future growth will have to come despite government cuts rather than thanks to government supports. Meanwhile, the Fed got little to worry it on the inflation front. Its favoured inflation measure—the core price index for personal consumption expenditures—came in at a 0.4% annual growth rate. That measure has declined steadily from the fourth quarter of last year.

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