Republicans, though still traumatized by their resounding defeat in the 2006 election, are growing convinced they can win the White House again in 2008. They believe things are beginning to turn their way. The war in Iraq is being won. The Democratic Congress is so unpopular that even House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she disapproves of it. The economy, despite the subprime mortgage problem, is resilient. And several issues are emerging in their favor–taxes, national security, and illegal immigrants writes Fred Barnes in the Weekly Standard.
Best of all, Hillary Clinton is the likeliest Democratic presidential nominee. She has one quality Republicans appreciate: She unites Republicans everywhere in furious opposition as no other Democrat does. John Edwards, correct for once, told Clinton in last week’s Democratic presidential debate that Republicans “keep bringing you up” not because she’s a strong candidate but because “they may actually want to run against you.” That’s exactly what Republicans want. They think she’s highly beatable.
Having Clinton as their foe, however, won’t be sufficient for Republicans to hold the presidency in 2008. There are (at least) four political problems they must deal with successfully to win–problems that aren’t on the front burner except at Republican headquarters in Washington.
Here are the four:
Hispanics. President Bush won 40 percent of the growing Hispanic vote in 2004, but Republican candidates got roughly 30 percent in the 2006 midterm election. And practically everything Republicans have done since then has tended to alienate Hispanics.
Defeat of the immigration reform bill earlier this year, with its pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the United States, troubled many Hispanics. While Republicans weren’t solely responsible for killing the bill, they claimed the credit. This fall, Republicans have stressed the less divisive issues of denying driver’s licenses and in-state college tuition to illegals.
A massive repair job is needed if Republicans hope to regain support among Hispanics. This is critical. Bush defeated John Kerry by 2.4 percentage points in 2004. If Bush’s Hispanic backing had been cut in half, he might have lost. And that’s what Republicans are threatened with in 2008–getting half of Bush’s vote.
Read it here: The Republicans Have a Chance if they clear Four Hurdles