Victories by Sen. Barack Obama and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in the Iowa caucuses mean there’s a better chance that Californians will cast a ballot that matters in their Feb. 5 primary - and they could see campaign TV commercials and mailers within days according to a report in the San Francisco Chronicle.
What’s helping to keep California relevant among two dozen other states holding Feb. 5 elections is that upward of 44 percent of its 16 million registered voters are expected to cast ballots by mail, which are scheduled to arrive in voters mailboxes early next week.
Most mail-in voters submit their ballots in either the first week after they receive them or the week before the election, analysts say, so a victory in Iowa and the next few days of media buzz will be a boon in California too.
“How you perform in Iowa and New Hampshire is about momentum and people in California will be hearing about that for the next few days as they get their ballots,” said Tony Strickland, California chair for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s campaign. “It affects people in California because they’re watching the news just like everybody else. But we’ve got the resources to continue competing. Let’s talk again after New Hampshire and Michigan.”
Californians who receive a vote-by-mail ballot in the next couple of days should expect to receive a mailer in the next couple of days from one of the better funded campaigns - like Obama’s, Clinton’s or former GOP New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, said Allan Hoffenblum, a former GOP consultant who publishes the nonpartisan California Target Book, which analyzes the state’s races.
“The better funded campaigns are the ones that are going to be able to try to capture those voters,” Hoffenblum said. “Huckabee’s campaign doesn’t have the money to do it here, neither does (Arizona GOP Sen. John) McCain for that matter. That’s why you’re not going to see them doing that here.”
Clinton’s California campaign director Ace Smith said “our whole campaign is based on reaching those voters. You literally have a 29-day election in California, with millions and millions of ballots case before Election Day. And we’ve been trying to identify those people for months.”
Read it here: Close Race means California Primaries may matter