My analysis of the 2008 Santa Clarita City Council election detailed last week proved the ultimate winners, Laurie Ender and Bob Kellar, projected regional dominance, Laurie Ender owning everything north of Newhall Ranch Road on the West Side of the City and Saugus, Plum Canyon and everything on the East Side south of Soledad Canyon Road with the exception of Rainbow Glen and Sand Canyon. Bob Kellar owned the rest of Canyon Country with the exception of small Precinct 62 taken by Diane Trautman. Bob Kellar also split precincts near the hospital with Spierer and Trautman, while Spierer and Trautman split precincts down in Newhall south of Lyons Avenue.
But let us consider the strange case of precinct 25, the area of Newhall and Valencia around Old Orchard. Laurie Ender captured this precinct by a margin of 28 votes. Why do I note this? Out of the thirty precincts in Santa Clarita with voters, precinct 25 produced the MOST votes in the election.
The facts? Ten precincts in Santa Clarita produced nearly 50% of the total votes cast. Ten precincts produced only 18% of the votes cast. The middle ten produced a proportional 33%. I provide the following list of the top ten, identified in some cases by their polling place:
Old Orchard
Northpark and Northbridge (the areas around Northpark and Helmers Elementary)
The Summit
The Westside of Newhall below Lyons Avenue
The Pinetree Area of Canyon Country
Upper Bouquet Area of Saugus
The Area of Valencia near the hospital outside the Summit
Lower Bouquet Area of Saugus
Friendly Valley
Valencia Area surrounding Bridgeport Elementary
Not surprisingly, Laurie Ender captured six of these precincts, Bob Kellar four and Bob Spierer one.
The precincts with the least impact on the election? In reverse order:
Rainbow Glen
The Soledad Corridor between Ruether and White’s Canyon
The Soledad Corridor between Bouquet Canyon and Ruether
Newhall Surrounding Newhall Elementary
The area surrounding Canyon High School
Canyon Country between Sierra Highway and Sand Canyon
Skyblue Mesa Area
Mountainview
East Newhall below Lyons Avenue
Area surrounding La Mesa Junior High School
The lesson? It appears at first blush the farther one got away from the hospital or the seat of Laurie Ender’s power the less interest the election generated with the exception of the reliable vote factories of Friendly Valley, Sand Canyon, and Old Orchard.
But the City did not create all precincts equally. Some contain many more registered voters and one could not expect the less populated areas to generate high participation. To control for this I devised a measure I called “Participation Differential.” One derives this number by subtracting the rank of the precinct in registered voters from their rank in number of actual votes. A participation differential of zero connotes a mean participation by voters in the precinct while positive numbers indicate higher than average participation and negative numbers less than average participation.
Let us take Precinct 25 to illustrate the calculation. Precinct 25 ranked eight in total registered voters and one in generating votes, so it generated a participation differential of “7,” very near the top of positive participation differentials.
Participation differentials ranged from 17 to –13. The most robust precinct? Friendly Valley (surprise, surprise). The least interested? Canyon County between Whites Canyon and Sierra Highway. The precincts surrounding Henry Mayo Newhall Hospital turned in differentials of 7’s and 8’s, so Dave Gauny did succeed in a not insignificant mobilization of that area. Unfortunately, they split their support between Trautman, Kellar and Spierer. The lesson? When too many candidates support the wants of a Nimby group, the Nimby group dilutes its support to irrelevance.
A surprising result? The precincts where Laurie Ender absolutely dominated turned in participation differentials of only 2. Remember these three precincts generated more than one half of Laurie Ender’s differential over Bob Spierer and ranked in the top ten of total votes generated. A higher mobilization of these precincts could result in even larger victories for another council hopeful in the future with ties to this emerging political strong point.
A darker lesson? The council should NEVER do anything to rile up the precincts north of Newhall Ranch Road, particularly if the anger focuses on one particular council member. No elected official could withstand the winds blowing when and if these precincts moved their participation differential to a “7.”
So I would predict one would NEVER see these types of things proposed for the area North of Newhall Ranch Road:
• An recycling facility;
• A permanent homeless shelter; or
• Something that generated a lot of traffic the residents did not like.
Those will most likely end up in Canyon Country between White’s Canyon and Sierra Highway.
Tim Myers Commentary
Tim Myers is Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Landscape Development, Inc. He has been writing on a wide variety of local topics for more than 11 years. His commentaries represent his own opinions and not necessarily the views of any organization he may be affiliated with or those of the West Ranch Beacon.